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Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2006 12:10 pm Post subject: Time & GoD Raids
Grats to all on Ikkinz 3 last night. Hard to stay up that late for many of us, but glad we got it done.
The content we are going to be raiding now - both Time and virtually all GoD raids - is different in many ways from what we have become accustomed to. Sure the mobs hit harder, there are lots of AEs and unusual strats involved, and we are for the most part inexperienced with these raids and learning as we go.
But there is another significant difference to be aware of as well.
I suspect these raids are going to tend to run longer than many of you may be anticipating. Not just the Ikkinz instances but really all the GoD instances and Time as well.
For GoD, we will be doing Ikkinz 4 and Uqua multiple times - both of these will be, at first anyway, longer and harder than Ikkinz 3. We may not be able to complete them if we lose 1/3 of our raiders by the time we get to the end.
For Time, we have to kill P1 every single night to begin the instance, as well as P2 & P3 the first night we do Time each week. This essentially means we don't even get to the *real* mobs until 12:30 or even later Eastern time. I am wondering if we won't have our first Quarm kill happen at like 5:00 am in the East, hehe.....
Anyway, the point of this post is not to encourage people to stay up later to play EQ. Most of us, including the leadership, just won't be able to do that on a regular basis. Some of you may find yourselves getting frustrated and thinking -
I am never going to be able to stay up late enough to get my Ikkinz 4 or Uqua flag
or
Here I am helping AH get through P1 - P3 every week, but I am never able to stay up late enough to kill the greater gods or Quarm
The leadership may get frustrated as well when we have folks drop out of a GoD instance to the point of being unable to finish.
So during this time of adjustment - over the next 2 or 3 months at least - be aware that we are not only learning the content of these raids and how to beat them but also learning how best to organize and schedule our raids in such a way that works for all of us. Don't assume because we do something a certain way one week that it will always be like that. Voice any ideas or concerns you have and they will be considered.
We have come a long way together, and we can go a lot further if we stick together, stay patient, and keep this stuff in mind.
Happy Raiding! _________________
Last edited by Olidan on Wed Apr 26, 2006 9:35 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Jun 02, 2005 Posts: 1019 Location: Camas, WA
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2006 1:56 pm Post subject:
Honestly, we probably should not have done ikky 3 last night. Ikky 1 or 2 maybe, but we know ikky 3 is going to be a late night thing and should be reserved for friday or saturday imo. Most guilds that do ikky 3, do it once just to be able to trigger ikky 4 and move on. If kor's pattern thing turns out to be legit then perhaps we could farm it, but every raider I've talked to has said it's merely a crap shoot and there is no set pattern (though I'm still waiting on a few more responses). BTW, I pop'd infusion last night during that fight and it seemed to help....we may want to use infusion the next time we do him to save some mana on heals (believe the AoE is -300 chromatic).
As for time - Perhaps starting P1 - P2 earlier then normal so that we are hitting P3 around our normal starting time would help? It is probably the only way for us to do P4-P6 in the same night....otherwise, we're stuck doing P1-P3 one night and P4 - P6 the other. Anywho, I think we have a better chance of getting people on an hour early then we do asking them to stay and hour late /shrug.
Basically, any first attempt at a target should be done on fri/sat as should any raid that we know, in advance, will likely go later then 11pm. Essentially, that leaves one other night for shorter raids (other night is epics which is fairly short).
Honestly, we probably should not have done ikky 3 last night. Ikky 1 or 2 maybe, but we know ikky 3 is going to be a late night thing and should be reserved for friday or saturday imo. Most guilds that do ikky 3, do it once just to be able to trigger ikky 4 and move on. If kor's pattern thing turns out to be legit then perhaps we could farm it, but every raider I've talked to has said it's merely a crap shoot and there is no set pattern (though I'm still waiting on a few more responses). BTW, I pop'd infusion last night during that fight and it seemed to help....we may want to use infusion the next time we do him to save some mana on heals (believe the AoE is -300 chromatic).
If you review your logs fom both our Ikkinz raids you will be able to see the pattern, and so long as you count the death of the mob as a change it has been 100 percent consistent.
But I seriously doubt we will do Ikkinz 3 again (or 1 or 2 for that matter). Too much trouble just for loot. Ikkinz 4 drops the same and better loot anyway, and we will have to complete that one multiple times as it is needed for progression, whereas Ikkinz 1, 2 & 3 are not needed. Their only purpose is to allow us to pop Ikinz 4. _________________
Joined: Jun 02, 2005 Posts: 1019 Location: Camas, WA
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2006 2:23 pm Post subject:
Olidan wrote:
If you review your logs fom both our Ikkinz raids you will be able to see the pattern, and so long as you count the death of the mob as a change it has been 100 percent consistent.
What, exactly, do you mean by that? The only way I can see affirming any pattern (based on what we've done), is to either 1) Do it a couple more times and see if it works; therefore, doing away with dumb luck., or 2) Checking the dieing emote on a few consecutive deaths and seeing if they match up given the number of switches done in-between the death (IE - if it died on melee, switched to the next upon repop, and died again on what would be the next logical archetype in the pattern from the first death to the second and so on). This is why I was pushing the 4/8 cycle thing so hard last night...it doesn't give you the correct pattern, but it would (after a couple kills) determine that there IS a pattern and we would still get the kill without having to know the proper pattern.....in other words:
Cycle = A>B>C>D
Mob dies on A so repop = B (starting point)
After four switches the cycle ends up back on B regardless of pattern (*IF* there is a pattern at all).
So, mob dies at "A", switches to "B", then we get 4 cycles (B to C, C to D. D to A, then A back to B and we kill on B again)....this ensures a win regardless of any patterns and determines, once and for all, that there is or isn't a pattern at all. Either way, it would have to be substantiated via a few kills to make up for the laws of probability, but it is, by far, the most efficient way to go about it.
P.S. - The 4 cycle thing would determine a pattern with 100% accuracy if it failed (so long as we got cycle count right). If we would have lost last night on kor's pattern it would have only proved that HER pattern was wrong and not that there isn't pattern....thus the 4 cycle thing would be a better tool to properly determine, scientifically, whether or not a pattern exist PLUS we would still get the kill each time if there is a pattern (ANY pattern at all). Science 4tw!
Checking the dieing emote on a few consecutive deaths and seeing if they match up given the number of switches done in-between the death
That is exactly what I mean - if you have complete logs of the 2 fights, every death fits the pattern exactly.....
Sure I guess it COULD just be a coincidence........... but that's highly unlikely imho.
That also does explain why we never just *got lucky* before - because, although there is a regular pattern and we knew what the pattern was, we weren't counting the changes properly because we weren't counting his death as a change. Not until that last time when we won anyway!
Current plan is for Fri/Sat to be the longer raids (Time phase 4-6 and Ikk4/Uqua). Starting early is something under consideration, but we won't be doing it until we refine what we are doing have have a better idea how much time it is going to take us to do each phase in Time.
Cannot really start GoD early. Too much of a pita to get people there.
I'd give it another 3 weeks or so until we get a regular schedule down.
Joined: Jun 02, 2005 Posts: 1019 Location: Camas, WA
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2006 3:40 pm Post subject:
Olidan wrote:
That is exactly what I mean - if you have complete logs of the 2 fights, every death fits the pattern exactly.....
That would make sense (after the fact:-). Now we have to see if each instance has a different pattern /shudder. BTW, don't take my statements as trying to prove kor wrong...in all likelihood her pattern is correct and coming up with the switch after death was brilliant, but it is still most practical to go on the 4/8 cycle because it takes away the variable of incorrect patterns or pattern shifts....it would also, as I pointed out, prove that there are no patterns if on the 4th/8th cycle it did not match with the first in the cycle. This is the only means to prove anything with 100% certainty (though we would have to fail to prove it).
So, kor = great, but science = greater then all:-)
Joined: Mar 27, 2004 Posts: 221 Location: Cumberland, Kentucky
Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2006 4:26 pm Post subject:
On Ikky 3 patterns:
/shrug. Kor said she knew the pattern. She said she knew when the mob would be killable by hybrids, she had us wait and then said "HYBRIDS KILL". They did, mob died, we cheered.
Thats all the evidence I need.
I sincerely hope we never do Ikky 3 again. If we ever do however I am insisting Kor be there with us.
On Time raiding and how to fit in long raids on one night:
I like the idea of farming time before we get into GoD progression hot and heavy. Sure GoD loot is better in many cases but the failure rate is going to be higher. Farm time + get gear = less failure in GoD. I tend to think long term. Farming Time before trying to farm GoD seems more beneficial in the long run. Not to hurt anyones feelings but many of our newer folks just don't have the gear level for GoD. A few time clears before we move on in GoD would make things a lot less painful.
Starting a Time raid an hour early would be no problem at all (provided someone to lead it can do so). Its likely we can get 40+ folks that can log in an hour or even 2 hours early and thats all we need for Time 1, 2 and a fair portion of 3. The cap is relatively low anyway so thats a more efficient use of manpower and time then having some folks have to wait outside while we progress to a point where more can get in. The beauty of Time raiding is folks can easily enter the zone and jump in at any point (unlike Ikky raids).
In short, us east coasters would love to start early, clear 1,2 and maybe even 3 and by then more west coasters would be logging on coinciding with the point where the raid cap increases to accomodate more folks.
Just something to think about. Some of us east coasters kinda meander about in EQ for an hour or two just waiting for the raid to start. I'd much rather something productive like a bit of work on Time 1 and 2 then do yet another creator mission.
Wow I hadn't anticipated so many responses so fast. Really I had intended this thread as sort of an *expectation lowerer* for the purpose of reducing some morale problems that might be coming with these harder raids. But anyway let me tell you what I think, too.
I think our best bet is to start Time every Wednesday and get through P3(and to start it early if possible). Get as far as we can each night until we are done with it. I think most of our raiders would rather do Time for 3 or 4 hours a night tand get to sleep rather than be put in a situation where the best we can hope for is to get halfway through P5 by the end of Saturday's raid. The first time to get all the way through it might take us 4 nights. Then maybe eventually we will cut it back to 3 or even to 2 as our proficiency improves. And if it doesn't take us 4 nights? Well that's cool too - cause then our Saturday night could be devoted to a PITA raid (like GoD) instead.
My reasoning is this - allowing ourselves 4 nights each week to get to Quarm will ensure that we kill him sooner rather than later. At least we would have the option of continuing in Time each night if we wanted to.
If we start Time on a Thursday or Friday, then we are forced to kill Quarm in 3 days or lose. We may put ourselves in a position where we really wish we had that extra night.
But whatever we do, I'm there, of course _________________
Joined: Aug 09, 2005 Posts: 684 Location: California
Posted: Fri Apr 14, 2006 8:25 am Post subject:
One of the things that has me confused is the timers for Time. How do these things work? As I understood it all the tasks have a 5 day lock-out, but since folks are planning on spreading the Time raids over 2 or 3 days, I must be misunderstanding.
I'm also in favor of starting p1 and p2 early on nights we raid Time, we are likely to have enough folks on to start and since we can add more this appears to me to be a win/win solution.
Ardy, you only have a five day lock out if you fail the time limit on one phase. If you stop radiing after killing the bosses of any level you can come back later and finish it. Within Hmm 24 or 48 hours not sure which but with Empyreal we would come back the next night - less than 24.
After we finish Time each night, please remove yourself from the Time expedition. To do this, press alt z and it should bring up the window.
The reason I say this is that I am tired of clicking like 50 people and having to remove them manually. Please make me happy and do this on your own so I can go to sleep after our raids.
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